Strategy Briefing (Crabstone)
Chess-piece-shaped perfume bottles arranged on a board, one king toppled, pawns standing in a row, with 'Mind Games' hand-lettered above.

Mind Games Grew Without The Scent Supposed To Carry It

Mind Games grew 56 percent in 2025 without a hero scent, its top SKU holding just 17 percent. The portfolio model works because algorithmic discovery has made the bestseller anchor obsolete.

Sir John Crabstone

The hero fragrance is meant to do the work the rest of the catalogue cannot. It announces the brand, anchors the price, and gives the wholesale buyer a single SKU to back. At Maison Francis Kurkdjian, Baccarat Rouge 540 took that role, accounting for 69 percent of U.S. sales last year by Circana’s count. The model is so entrenched that brands without a hero are usually presumed to be in trouble.

Mind Games grew to $28.9 million in U.S. sales in 2025 from $18.5 million the year prior, per Circana data reported by Glossy. French Defense, the top seller, held 17 percent of those sales. Sixty-five percent of revenue came from fourteen scents, the brand says. The portfolio is doing what portfolios are not supposed to do.

The conventional rebuttal is patience. Wait long enough and the hero will assert itself; portfolios always do. But Mind Games is four years old, retails at $395 a bottle through Selfridges, and is already pricing in scents twenty-nine and thirty. Founder Alex Shalbaf says he is “trying to not have a single SKU that is most of our business.” That is not a phase — it is a strategy.

The hero SKU exists because finding a niche fragrance used to be expensive. Sales associates had to learn one name; the customer needed something to ask for at the counter. The For You Page does that work now, routing discovery across the full catalogue rather than defaulting to the front. TikTok Shop crossed $162 million in fragrance sales last year, per Charm.io data reported by Glossy, on names largely absent from editorial fragrance coverage five years ago. The catalogue itself is the surface now.

The same pressure operates within a brand’s own infrastructure. Jo Malone’s AI Scent Advisor, built on Google’s Gemini and Vertex AI, maps natural language to olfactory attributes and generates personalised recommendations across the full range. The mechanism is not social discovery; it serves a single brand’s catalogue, not the open market. The hero SKU was a heuristic for the limits of a human at the counter. The heuristic no longer holds.

The hero scent was always a tax on expensive discovery, and Mind Games has stopped paying it.

This is uncomfortable news for the houses still organising their marketing around one bottle. A hero SKU is leverage in the wholesale meeting and visibility at the counter. It is also exposure to a one-bottle bet, which is what Shalbaf says he is hedging against. Mind Games’ best-seller is rotating — Check Please has just entered the top five. Athlete endorsement could still produce a hero; the brand is reportedly in talks with athletes including Aaron Rodgers, which could recreate the very concentration Shalbaf says he is avoiding. A buyer stocking a dozen Mind Games scents has the hedge against that scenario built in. The portfolio house absorbs rotation. The hero house bets against it.

Discovery used to be a fixed cost paid in shelf inches and editorial column inches. It is now variable, and what it discovers is the long tail. The houses still organised around a hero are paying yesterday’s fixed cost out of today’s variable revenue. The arithmetic only gets worse.